#10 IU vs Purdue: Prediction and Preview
Can IU make a much needed statement in the Bucket game?
This is going to be a more abbreviated version than I’ve been doing simply because it’s a holiday and I have family in town…And work has been pretty busy. Why is work always busy right before holidays?!
Anyway, IU will look to get their once humming offense back humming. Their once humming, top ten graded special teams unit back humming. And hope their defense continues humming against a Purdue offense that looked kind of scrappy in the second half against MSU.
Can IU do what most thought was a fever dream? Can they get to 11-1 and do it at home in front of a sold out Memorial stadium?
Below, I’ll do a my prediction for the game and a bit of a preview of what I want to see from IU this Saturday, but first I need to shill for a minute…Please subscribe if you haven’t. This is FREE. Tell a fellow IU football fanatic to subscribe as well. I’m humbled every time I get a new subscriber (we’re at 119 now!). This is just a cathartic release for me. I love this team and love IU.
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IU vs Purdue — 7PM ET / 6PM CT — FS1
IU Reactionary Betting Record: 12-8
IU Reactionary Prediction: IU 38-10
SP+ has this game at IU 47-6 and gives IU a 99% chance to win. ESPN gives IU a 98% chance to win. Football Insiders has at 38-12 (I’m rounding here). I’m just not sure I see it as much of a blow out as the computers. IU’s offense really needs to get on track. They’ve had one good drive in 6 quarters going back to the Michigan second half.
With the spread coming down anywhere from IU -29.5 to -28.5, IU is a clear favorite and barring something ridiculous happening, should win the game outright. But as I said above, I think IU needs to get back on track and make a statement. If IU barely squeaks this one out, I could see them being left out of the playoff entirely with how they’ve played the last three games. If they can win by around the spread or more and make a statement, I could see them potentially even hosting a game.
Two other things that could play a factor here are students being off for break and the weather. The students have been awesome this year and you can hear them on TV. How many show up? The weather could play a factor as well. The forecast is very cold and, seeing as this is the first night game in the entire history of the rivalry, I could see it potentially playing a factor.
For the final regular season game, I’m taking Purdue to cover the -28.5 (but IU win 38-10) and the UNDER.
Again, this is going to be a much shorter preview, but I wanted to get some thoughts out on the game and discuss some higher level thoughts on IU’s season.
As you can see from the graphic above, IU has been very good this year and Purdue hasn’t. Even with the last two weeks (6 quarters if we’re being more precise), IU still looks really good in the advanced offensive and defensive metrics compared to basically every team not in the top 10.
As for Purdue’s offense, Hudson Card has looked better of late and he can extend plays with his legs (as IU found out about last year). He’s experienced and needs to cut down on mistakes. I’m a huge Devin Mockobee fan. If Purdue’s OL wasn’t so mediocre, I think he’d be one of the better backs in the B1G and that’s saying something with the amount of legitimate talent in the league.
Purdue’s OL has actually not been awful (51st pass blocking / 63rd run blocking per PFF) but whenever they’ve faced a good defense like IU has (OSU, PSU, Oregon), they’ve gotten shut down. And IU has the best run defense in the nation and proved that last week by holding OSU’s NFL backs TreVeyon Henderson and Qunshon Judkins to a combined 23 carries for 104 yards (4.52 ypc)…and that includes the 39 yard run by Henderson when IU wasn’t even playing defense. If you take that out, holding those two to 65 yards on 22 carries (2.95 ypc) in the Horseshoe is incredible. Still, Purdue took NW and Illinois to OT and probably should have come back from down 24-3 at half to MSU to win last week so they’re not totally dead in the water. IU is going to need another good performance from CJ West, Mikail Kamara and crew to contain Mockobee and Card and force them into long conversion situations.
Purdue’s front 7 just isn’t very good on defense. That’s been the main issue with them stopping people. They just can’t get off the field…at all. Their run defense is grade as #108. IU’s RB’s ran for 141 yards on 32 carries (4.40 ypc) against OSU. They should be able to feast here.
For IU, that should open up things for IU’s passing game (hopefully) against apass rush graded just #106 in the nation and has just 20 sacks in 11 games (74th in the nation). That leads to their putrid #131 coverage grade because QB’s can seemingly pick them apart with time to throw. They’re 104th in yards allowed per game in the air at 249.9. That said, Michigan and OSU have put how to confuse IU’s OL on film. I expect pressure off the edge from Purdue and press man on the outside…but Purdue isn’t OSU or Michigan. IU’s running game has been pretty good but we need to see more from Kurtis Rourke and co., who have put up just 274 passing yards the past two games combined and nearly half of that came in the 1st half against Michigan.
I expect IU to get on track, but I also need to see it again with my eyes because of how shaky the entire passing operation has looked…And they better because what the CFP committee showed on Tuesday is that they’re close to moving IU out of the rankings.
Which is where I wanted to give my thoughts on IU moving from #5 → #10 in the latest CFP rankings, but #11 in seeding. IU’s loss at #2 OSU moved them back 5 spots, behind teams with like SMU, who’s only loss was to a sputtering BYU team and who has a worse strength of schedule to IU. It’s perplexing to me.
Let me say what I said on Monday: IU needs to win and I think win big to be completely safe.
IU is currently the last at large bid and I honestly don’t think “just winning” will do it, especially if Clemson blows out South Carolina, unless other teams lose. Basically, IU controls their own destiny. Win big, you’re in. Squeak by and you may be out…lose and you’re definitely out.
Let’s win big! #PackTheRock